If China becomes the leading superpower

 

If China becomes the leading superpower, what would that mean for the people who live there? What would it mean for everyone else?

I pick up my magic crystal and gaze into it. China has become the leading superpower. Every Han Chinese person is rich, the streets in China are paved with jade and everyone eats pork noodles from out of cups of gold using silver chopsticks. China is no longer polluted and its cities are sparking clean with excellent infrastructure and world class public transport. All over the world, outside China, people are desperately poor, eating Chow Mein with bits of factory-made-tofu, and speaking Mandarin. No one speaks English anymore. Yes, I am just kidding.  Probably.

After the second world war, the United States became the world’s leading superpower. The end of the Great Depression coincided with the beginning of the Second world war and so, from 1929 till 1945, the people of the United States lived through difficult times. However, after the end of WWII, the power and prestige of the US grew manifold. Simply because much of the rest of the world was either exhausted by the war or still in a stage of colonial underdevelopment, American power in 1945 was, for want of another term, artificially high, like, say, Britian’s in 1815[i]. Among the great powers, the United States was the only country which became richer – in fact, much richer – rather than poorer because of the war[ii]. Standards of living went up across the United States. Greater global clout for the United States meant that American companies could do more business across the world. Since many countries were influenced by American soft power, there was a bigger market for Hollywood movies and soap operas. In turn, Hollywood , took on a mission to fight communist ideology and also supported the official American state ideology[iii]. Many countries, positively influenced by America, especially Japan and South Korea, went on to become economic superpowers[iv].

If China becomes the leading superpower, would all that happened in the United States between 1945 and 1990 (the approximate end of the cold war) be repeated in China? To a large extent the answer depends on how China became the leading superpower. Did it (in alliance with Russia and Iran) fight a bruising war with the United States, Japan and Korea, over, say Taiwan, win the war, and become the leading superpower? In such a case, what I saw in my gazing crystal may not be totally wrong. Would China treat the vanquished West (the United States and Western European countries) with sympathy, akin to how the United States treated Japan and West Germany? I doubt it. Chinas isn’t going to give its enemies even a chance to recover and challenge it ever again. Defeated western countries would be treated the way the Soviet Union treated countries like Bulgaria, Rumania and East Germany – with a firm hand. Democracy would extinguished across the world.

How would China treat its neighbours such as Vietnam, India and the Philippines all of with whom it has border disputes? According to US scholar Yun Sun, China believes in power politics and its own natural superiority. Beijing’s vision for Asia is strictly hierarchical—with China at the top.[v] India is likely to have sided with the West in its war against China and so, it is likely that China would treat its heavily populated southern neighbour harshly. A big chunk of India’s Himalayan region may be annexed to China. India may be forced to concede to Pakistan’s demands in Jammu and Kashmir, without any regard for Indian interests. What would happen to India’s much vaunted software industry? Would it be allowed to thrive and compete with Chinese software companies? Very unlikely. Every country which openly sided with the West in the war which China won, would also be dealt with harshly. Assuming that Vietnam and the Philippines did not openly side with China, would they fare much better than India? Possibly, but China isn’t going to allow Vietnam to develop a manufacturing base that could compete with China or even rival it at some point. The Spratly Islands, the Scarborough Reef and the Paracel Islands will be annexed to China without any doubt. As for Taiwan, it would be made a part of China and all Taiwanese who do not support such annexation would be either killed or imprisoned.

How would China, the world’s leading superpower, treat its dissidents? Would it allow free of speech and expression within China and in geographies where it has control or influence? How would Tibet fare? Or Xinjiang? If I were to pose this question to a Tibetan or a Uyghur, I know what the answer will be. In 1949, the Chinese military established the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, a development corporation, to tame the wild land in Xinjiang and its locals. In 1949 settlers from the east accounted for no more than 3% of the local population, but some four decades later the colonists had expanded to 40% of Xinjiang’s 17 million people.[vi]

There would be an enormous demand for reconstruction across a devastated world, not very different from what the situation was post the second world war. One can be sure that Chinese companies would corner a lion’s share of the construction contracts, leaving some crumbs for its Russian and Iranian allies. Vast wealth would flow into China on account of its boom. Would such wealth be evenly distributed or would Chinese oligarchs corner a lion’s share of the spoils? Our experience so far shows that ever since China adopted its version of free market economics, it hasn’t been very good with distributing wealth evenly. So, even within China, income disparities would continue.

If China became the leading superpower after militarily defeating the United States, Japan, Korea and their Western European allies in a near Armageddon-type war, wouldn’t the defeated West resort to guerilla warfare, howsoever such warfare may be carried out in the 21^st century? The superpower would be on its toes and would be fighting insurgencies in every corner of the world. India, the world’s most populous country, is likely to be on the side of the defeated West and will provide its manpower, especially its vast pool of engineers to fight China. Laptops across the world would be trying to hack into Chinese servers to disrupt its economy. The world won’t be a pretty place and I suspect there would be more unhappy and hungry people across the world than happy and contended ones.

In 2000, China’s only energy footprint in Africa was a pipeline built by PetroChina in Sudan. Within a few years, China’s oil companies were operating in almost twenty countries across the continent[vii]. Currently, China has a very large footprint in Africa and it is not a pretty footprint. True, a lot of infrastructure has been sponsored by China and China has offered credit to countries who would otherwise struggle to find equivalent support elsewhere. However, China has not hesitated to prop up dictators and tyrants in its hunt for allies. It is possible to argue that the United States and before that, European powers used similar tactics in Asia and Africa. However, times have changed and such Whataboutery will not save the world. If China becomes the leading superpower, the people of Africa are likely to be exploited even more. Credit terms are likely to be become even harsher and environmental standards when mining for precious metals that can be used to make computer chips are unlikely to be evolve.

If China becomes the leading superpower, would the fight against global warming become a priority for the superpower? Or would China be more interested in cementing its numero uno position, for which it would continue to exploit the world? It is likely that a ruthless Chinese superpower may continue with its current lackadaisical approach to environmental damage and pollution. Even China will continue to be heavily polluted since the Chinese government is unlikely to cut down on industrial production.

On the other hand, if the present day China undergoes a metamorphosis, say  Xi Jinping is replaced by someone democratic and decent, and China becomes the world’s superpower fair and square, without a military struggle, then it is possible that the world may be a better place for most people.

Xi Jinping is a tyrant[viii], one who does not believe in free speech and his tyranny has caused untold misery throughout China and  elsewhere. His policy of Sinicization has made it impossible for minorities to live in China with dignity and of late, even mosques of Hui Muslims in the Yunnan province have been targeted for demolition[ix]. So, let’s assume that Xi Jinping is overthrown by someone who has greater respect for democracy and human rights, one who believes that it would not be such a bad thing for Tibetans and Uyghurs to be allowed to speak their own language and practice their rituals and traditions, one who believes in ‘live and let live’. Let’s assume that Xi Jinping’s successor brought in sweeping democratic reforms within China which enabled China to cutdown on military spending, tolerate the existence of Taiwan and focus on economic growth. Let’s assume that Xi Jinping’s successor, I’m going to call him the “2^nd Deng” succeeded. 

If China under 2^nd Deng becomes the leading superpower, it would be a triumph of democracy. Tibetans and Uygurs would be leading a normal life, free to speak their languages and spend their free time as they wish. Even the children of Han would do things that people in the developed world take for granted, such as sit around in cafes, drink coffee, smoke cigarettes and argue over the merits of King Fu over Tai Chi. Such prosperity would undoubtedly be contagious. Russia would probably be a rival or even an outright enemy unless Putin has been replaced by someone civilized by then. Various countries in Africa, currently groaning under usurious Chinese loans, would be heaving a sigh of relief on account of the more benevolent loan terms offered by Deng 2, one which allows them to benefit from Chinese credit rather than go under. If China can spread prosperity in Sub-Saharan Africa, a big chunk of the globe (not necessarily the most populous portion) would light up.

A democratic China would amicably resolve its border disputes with its neighbours. India, the world’s most populous countries with whom China has fought a border war, would definitely benefit from Chinese democracy. India would be able to cut down on its defence expenditure and spent that money on poverty alleviation.  Hundreds of thousands of children who would otherwise have grown up to be illiterate and malnourished will get to go to school and grow up to their full potential. China may even prevail upon Pakistan to spend more on ploughshares than swords and prosperity would spread throughout the sub-continent.

A democratic China would partner the rest of the world in fighting pollution and global warming, which in my opinion, are the biggest challenges currently facing us. Is it possible to prosper without destroying our environment and causing catastrophic climate change? Possibly yes, provided we all prepare to make sacrifices and smell the coffee. Arguing that the West caused a lot of environmental damage in the 1960s and 70s as it raced to beat the Soviet Union and develop economically will not save us from rising sea levels. The Artic is warming up twice as fast as the rest of the planet, many species are disappearing from the face of the earth and ground water levels are going down. We need to act quickly by consuming less and not using dirty fuels. A democratic China that is the leading superpower would hopefully take the lead on this and set an example for Western countries to follow.

If China becomes the world’s superpower enroute to democracy and peace, the world would be a happier place.

Bibliography

Books

Kennedy, Paul. M, “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000”, London, William Collins, 2017

Dikötter, Frank. China After Mao, Bloomsbury Publishing.

Joshi, Manoj. Understanding the India–China Border,  Hurst Publishers.

Articles

Güzelipek, Yiğit Anıl. “The Implementatıon of USA’s Soft Power Via Hollywood: Looking Back To Cold War”, https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/606864

Beckley, Michael, Horiuchi, Yusaku and Miller, Jennifer M., “America's Role In The Making Of Japan's Economic Miracle”,  Cambridge University press, January 9, 2018, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-east-asian-studies/article/americas-role-in-the-making-of-japans-economic-miracle/9C7CC6A85CE125290BAD2735B09A882A

---

[i] Paul M. Kennedy, “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000”, London, William Collins, 2017, Kindle Edition, Page 357 of 663

[ii] Ibid

[iii] Yiğit Anıl Güzelipek, The Implementatıon of USA’s Soft Power Via Hollywood: Looking Back To Cold War, https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/606864

[iv] Michael Beckley, Yusaku Horiuchi and Jennifer M. Miller, “America's Role In The Making Of Japan's Economic Miracle”,  Cambridge University press, January 9, 2018, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-east-asian-studies/article/americas-role-in-the-making-of-japans-economic-miracle/9C7CC6A85CE125290BAD2735B09A882A

[v] Joshi, Manoj, “Understanding the India–China Border”. Hurst Publishers. Kindle Edition, Pp. 35, 36.

[vi] Frank Dikötter, “China After Mao”, Bloomsbury Publishing, Kindle Edition, Pp. 328, 329.

[vii]Ibid, P. 327.

[viii] “Tyrant of the year 2022: Xi Jinping, China”, Index On Censorship, December 1, 2022, https://www.indexoncensorship.org/2022/12/tyrant-of-the-year-2022-xi-jinping-china/

[ix] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/30/protesters-clash-police-china-partial-demolition-mosque